Futurist Thomas Frey boldly predicts, in his recent post on FuturistSpeaker.com that by 2030, over 50% of colleges will collapse. He lists several driving forces that are causing this disruption in higher education, with links to key metrics. These forces are rising costs, demand for online courses, seeds of discontent (college graduates are working minimum wage jobs), shifting trends (MOOCs, reversal in the demand for cognitive tasks), and student loan backlash. He focuses in on “eight core issues for colleges that will drive a wedge between business-as-usual and the unstoppable forces of change” and they are:

  1. Overhead costs too high
  2. Substandard classes and teachers
  3. Increasingly visible rating systems
  4. Inconvenience of time and place
  5. Pricing competition
  6. Credentialing system competition
  7. Relationships formed in colleges will be replaced with other relationship-building systems
  8. Sudden realization that “the emperor has no clothes!”